Obama’s Dangerous Game With Iran
Can the president keep nukes out of the mullahs’ hands, prevent the global economy from imploding, manage the wild card that is Israel—and get reelected?
Feb 13, 2012 12:00 AM EST
Well before he moved into the White House, Barack Obama began talking to Israel about Iran’s nuclear program, and even then there was mistrust. He met in 2008 with several leading Israelis, including Benjamin Netanyahu—before Netanyahu was elected prime minister—and impressed everyone with his determination to stop Iran from going nuclear. Netanyahu liked much of what he heard, according to a source in his inner circle. What troubled him, however, was that Obama didn’t talk specifically about Israel’s security.
Rather, he discussed Iran in the context of a broader non-proliferation policy. “He showed much command of the issues, even though it was months before he got elected,” says the Netanyahu source. “It was clear that he read and internalized things. But when he spoke about Iran and his opposition to the nuclearization of Iran ... the Israeli factor did not play prominently.”
That discomfort has continued through a series of meetings and conversations since both men took office. On Jan. 12 of this year, Obama called Netanyahu to clarify again, in part, the national interest and policies of the United States in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. The message has been conveyed repeatedly, via many channels: the administration is asking for “the time and the space for the sanctions to work,” says a senior administration official. “Not only have we put in place the most robust economic sanctions ever, but we’ve just started to move on the energy sector.” Above all, the White House doesn’t want Israel to start a war—not yet, anyway.
For Obama, grappling with Iran policy is like playing a particularly high-stakes match of three-dimensional chess. The game requires the president to achieve several goals: keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of the mullahs, prevent the oil-based global economy from tipping into the abyss, and manage the wild card that is Israel. He would also like to get reelected this year.
Achieving one goal can undermine another. Obama’s advisers most concerned about the economy, for instance, have been at odds with allies in Congress most focused on preventing Iran from going nuclear. (It would take much less than an oil crisis to restoke panic about Greece and other feeble European economies.) Israel’s national interests are not always in line with Washington’s. And a messy war—or perceived weakness on Iran—could tip the election for the Republicans in November.
The risks are growing as the game progresses. It’s hard to overstate the impact on Iran of a new round of sanctions that is just beginning. The Iranian currency, the rial, plunged even in anticipation of Obama’s decision to back the sanctions. The United States has ordered a freeze on all Iranian-government assets in the U.S., Britain has cut off relations with Iran’s central bank, and the European Union has announced that it will end existing oil contracts with Iran by July. Iran could lose a quarter or more of its oil revenue, and has no comparable industry to help make up for the loss in hard currency. Prices for basic foods like rice and meat are already soaring.
Meanwhile, mysterious assassins killed yet another Iranian scientist last month—just a day before Obama’s phone call to Netanyahu—and Washington’s top intelligence official warned that Tehran, already feeling under attack, may be spurred to lash out violently inside the United States. Only a few months ago, the U.S. Justice Department unveiled an alleged Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington—a possible precursor of things to come.
It’s hardly surprising, then, that the head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency was recently in Washington for top-level meetings on Iran. According to an American official who was involved, Tamir Pardo wanted to take the pulse of the Obama administration and determine what the consequences would be if Israel bombed Iranian nuclear sites over American objections. Pardo raised many questions, according to this source: “What is our posture on Iran? Are we ready to bomb? Would we [do so later]? What does it mean if [Israel] does it anyway?” As it is, Israel has stopped sharing a significant amount of information with Washington regarding its own military preparations.
Brinksmanship may be one formula to force Iran’s leaders to negotiate in earnest. But it can cut both ways. In January, just as sanctions pressure intensified, Iran allowed nuclear inspectors into the country for the first time in many months. Yet it also began producing 20 percent enriched uranium—one step short of the 90 percent stuff used in weapons—at its underground facility near the holy city of Qum. If cornered, Iran may become more unpredictable. And if Israel attacks, the United States may get drawn into a war that could set the Middle East further aflame and send global markets into a terrified frenzy. So which will it be? How much influence does Obama have over Israel, and how committed is the United States to preventing a nuclear Iran at any cost? To answer that question, it helps to understand the game as Obama sees it—and to appreciate how we got to this dangerous brink in the first place.
This nuclear site at Bushehr looks like an open target; a new site near Qum is underground and heavily fortified., Digital Globe-Reuters-Landov
Nations in the nuclear club
Majid Asgaripour / Mehr News Agency-AP
Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear program has the international community up in arms, as Tehran continues to insist it is only interested in the process as a means of providing energy. The country’s nuclear program was first launched in the 1950s, and after the overthrow of the shah, the Islamic regime actually stopped it temporarily. But the government soon resumed the program, and start-up for the country’s first nuclear power plant, at Bushehr, was in August 2010. In January 2012 international sanctions hit Iran, and the country allowed nuclear inspectors for the first time in months. However, it is reported they also started producing enriched uranium at a heavily fortified underground facility near Qum.
Here’s a look at the nuclear club the West fears Iran wishes to join.
At left, the the reactor building of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in October 2010.
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