http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/
Scientists are divided over the impact of the Marlborough earthquakes on the
Alpine Fault.
GNS Science seismologist Stephen Bannister said yesterday that scientists
could not rule out the possibility that the quakes could stir up other faults
and "kick off" the Alpine Fault.
He said the biggest misconception the public had when it came to earthquakes
was that small ones minimised or took "the edge off" the possibility of a large
one occurring.
However, GNS Science spokesman John Callan said the recent swarm of quakes
east of Seddon was "not increasing or decreasing the risk of a quake on the
Alpine Fault".
He said the quakes were too far away to affect the Alpine Fault, which
stretches 600 kilometres from Milford Sound along the western Southern Alps to
Marlborough and is the on-land boundary between the Pacific and Australian
tectonic plates.
Recent research led by GNS Science found it last ruptured 296 years ago, and
it predicted a 30 per cent chance of a big quake along it in the next 50 years.
The average interval between large quakes on the fault was 330 years.
In the past 8000 years it had ruptured 24 times and caused magnitude-8
quakes, including four in the past millennium. The longest gap between major
quakes was 510 years and the shortest 140 years.
"An earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the near future would not be a big
surprise. Equally, it could be many decades away, based on its past behaviour,"
Callan said.
"There is no better time than the present to prepare for the next quake on
the Alpine Fault. The more thoroughly we prepare, the lower the eventual impact
will be."
He said work was under way to prepare to drill a deep borehole into the fault
early next year to study processes taking place at depth inside a major plate
boundary fault.
GNS Science is jointly leading the Deep Fault Drilling Project with Otago and
Victoria universities, and it involved 22 organisations from eight countries.
An extensive network of seismic instruments, including six "down-hole
seismometers" and about 40 surface instruments was recently installed near the
planned drilling site so scientists could record the normal level of small quake
activity.
The first stage was completed in 2011 with two holes drilled 101 and 105
metres into river terraces next to Gaunt Creek near Whataroa in South Westland.
West Coast tourist town Franz Josef straddled the fault ,but residents were
unfazed by quakes in far away regions, such as Wellington, Franz Josef
Development Society Incorporated chairman Marcel Fekkes said.
"Everyone is so used to the thing being here, we don't think about it much,''
he said.
"You can't live having fears like that really. When you think about it, the
whole country is rather volatile from natural hazards."
Many Franz Josef residents have been fighting Westland District Council plan
to establish fault-avoidance zones, which would impose significant restrictions
on the township. Submissions closed last September, but a date for public
hearings has yet to be set.
EQC BRACED FOR CLAIMS
The Earthquake Commission is bracing itself for an expected flood of claims
from property owners throughout the upper South Island and Wellington region.
However, the commission says the quake swarm will not affect the processing
of unsettled claims in Canterbury, while Prime Minister John Key says the
country can "in principle" afford another earthquake.
EQC has received more than 350 claims after the quakes centred east of
Marlborough that shut down central Wellington yesterday and left nerves across
the region frayed.
It is already handling 459,198 claims from the Canterbury quakes.
Commission customer services general manager Bruce Emsom said most of the
claims were for minor quake damage.
He said there was sufficient cover through levies, reinsurance and the Crown
guarantee to provide for all valid claims.
EQC would bring in more field staff, if required, to deal with the influx of
claims, so Cantabrians still waiting for their claims to be settled should not
be affected.
"There is unlikely to be any impact on processing existing claims from the
Canterbury quakes," he said.
Labour's EQC spokesman, Clayton Cosgrove, said that with the commission
struggling to keep up with its workload it was important the Government moved
swiftly to ensure it had extra resources and personnel so that claims resulting
from the Wellington quakes could be dealt with efficiently and without causing
any delay to the processing of Canterbury claims.
"You don't want anyone's claim held up," he said.
"Three years into a major catastrophe like this, one would have thought EQC
would be well-practised now and have the systems up to deal with this.
''You would hope the mistakes that have been made down here ... would not be
replicated and they could expedite claims faster."
Meanwhile, a Christchurch City Council offer to send personnel to Wellington
to help authorities assess the extent of the damage has so far not been taken
up.
RESEARCH ON SEDDON FAULTS INTENSIFIES
GNS Science seismologist Stephen Bannister said yesterday that intensive
research was being carried out to pinpoint where the recent swarm of earthquakes
had come from.
It was possible the recent quakes had come from a fault called the London
Hill Fault, a relatively small fault near the South Island's east coast between
Seddon and the Waimea River, he said.
Scientists would deploy nine extra seismic instruments in coastal Marlborough
over the next few days to enable more accurate measurements of the aftershocks.
Seismologists expected to have a clear understanding of the size and geometry
of the fault that ruptured on Sunday by the end of the week, along with
knowledge of the level of stress change that had occurred on neighbouring
faults.
Bannister said the fault the quakes were coming from had the capability to
produce magnitude 7s, especially in northern Marlborough, on the Awatere and
Clarence faults.
"Yesterday's earthquake may have a flow-on triggering effect to other nearby
faults in the vicinity," he said.
"We're quite confident that the earthquakes are not occurring on the major
fault between the Pacific and Australian plate, which we call the ‘subduction
interface'."
Bannister said aftershocks could reasonably be expected to go on for days. A
similar cluster of quakes that occurred just north of Seddon in 1995 had
continued for about 11 days.
Probability forecasts for aftershock sequences had been "strongly tested" by
the Canterbury sequence, he said.
There was a small possibility that some of the "busy network" of faults in
Cook Strait could pose a tsunami threat, prompting a reminder to those near the
coast that they should move to higher ground if they felt a strong earthquake
shaking the ground for more than 30 seconds, he said.
ALPINE FAULT: "An earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the near future would not
be a big surprise."
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